September 1, 2010
Ten things we learned this year
by Jared Wolfe/
Veteran Scott Rolen remained a strong fantasy baseball player in 2010. (photo: Getty Images)
For most head-to-head leagues, the fantasy season is winding down. Your league’s playoffs should be starting as you read this and at this point, the pretenders have been separated from the contenders. Hopefully by now, you consolidated your bench depth into starters, were fortunate enough to avoid the current minefield of injuries and got your hands on the perennial second-half monsters such as Mark Teixeira and Ricky Nolasco.
The strategy for head-to-head playoffs is pretty straightforward. You can micromanage to a higher extent, but for the most part it’s a roll of the dice. If you made the postseason you probably did a solid job managing this season.
I really like to trade away depth before the playoffs, not only to get more production in the lineup but also to increase roster flexibility. Those empty spots come in handy if you need to stream starting pitching late in the week, or if you have a comfortable lead in the power categories and you have to make room to pick up and plug in a Juan Pierre or Nyjer Morgan type to pick up a steal or two on the weekend.
That said, here’s a list of 10 things I think I learned during this fantasy year.
1. Old men can still be fantasy relevant. Normally I subscribe to youth and upside, but this year we saw age and resurgence play the same role. Scott Rolen, Paul Konerko, Billy Wagner and Vlad Guerrero have rewarded owners who looked past the fact that they live on a diet of Motrin and Metamucil. Even Jim Thome has an OPS near 1.000 against right-handers this year.
2. I was wrong about Joe Mauer. The power in 2009 was an exception not a progression.
3. Consistency is extremely valuable. You can do your research in the preseason and look at all the projections, but the fact is that none of us really know much. If you told me in April that Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista, Alex Rios, and Aubrey Huff would be top 20 fantasy players, I would have slapped you in the face. The lesson here is that next year you remember to pay for consistency early and buy the lottery tickets late. Players like Albert Pujols and Teixeira might not be living up to their draft position, but their high floor assures they will never bury your team.
4. You should never pitch to Miguel Cabrera. Sadly, once Magglio Ordonez went down, opposing managers realized this as well.
5. Don’t forget about the post-hype sleepers. Rickie Weeks is on pace for 100 RBI from the leadoff spot? He might be hurt by the time this article sees print, but Weeks is finally putting together the season owners have been waiting five years for. Delmon Young, Chris Young and Corey Hart are all sending their owners toward the playoffs as well. Start with a good pedigree and some hype, then mix in a disappointing season (or five) and boom, you know who to target late in drafts next year.
6. Carlos Marmol strikes out everyone.
7. “Don’t pay for saves” is a cliche. Pay for consistent closers like Mariano Rivera and be sure to handcuff closers that have a dominant eighth-inning guy in front of them. Having a terrible bullpen is extremely stressful and damaging to your rate stats. Saves can be found on the waiver wire if you work hard and speculate around the trade deadline. Also remember that closers make nice add-ins for two-for-one trade offers.
8. Buying low and selling high is always difficult, but if you are disciplined you will be rewarded. Just ask anyone who traded for Teixeira or traded away Ubaldo Jimenez a couple months ago.
9. Players don’t need long injury histories to get injured. Sometimes you just have a run of bad luck. You can ask the Red Sox about this.
10. Don’t burn yourself out. It is possible to overdose on fantasy baseball. When you crush stats for five hours a night, have dreams about your team, and see things like Vernon Wells’ OPS on license plates, you need to back off a little. Don’t live and die on every at-bat. Just like the real thing, fantasy is a grind. Say the serenity prayer.
And yes, I am half serious.
